Günter Lang
Land Prices and Climate Conditions
Evaluating the Greenhouse Damage for the German Agricultural Sector
Abstract:
Using an exhaustive panel dataset of the German agricultural sector, this
paper is evaluating the relationship between climate conditions and land
prices. The main advantage of this so-called hedonic approach is the consideration
of the full range of adaptation options to the climatic environment. A
Box-Cox form is employed to allow for very flexible relationships between
land prices, warmth, moisture, and different socioeconomic variables. In
a second step, the estimated results are used to forecast the impact of
global climate change on the farming sector. The results show that a change
of the temperature level has stronger impacts than a change of rainfall.
Using a greenhouse warming scenario, German farmers are expected to be
winners of climate change at least in the short run. Maximum gains are
estimated with a temperature increase of +1.0°C against the current
levels. Should the temperature increase surpass 1.8°C, however, the
impact on the farming sector is clearly negative.
JEL: Q12, Q25
Paper:
Paper available as pdf-file.
Beitrag Nr. 233, Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsreihe, Institut für
Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Augsburg
Contact:
Günter
Lang, University of Augsburg, Department of Economics, D-86135 Augsburg,
Germany, phone +49-821-598-4195, fax +49-821-598-4230,
email: guenter.lang@wiwi.uni-augsburg.de
v.
K., 01.01.2003