Andreas Pyka, Bernd Ebersberger, Horst Hanusch
A Conceptual Framework to Model Long-Run Qualitative Change in the
Energy System
Abstract:
This paper
deals with a
conceptual framework allowing the analysis of long-run qualitative
change in
the energy system. The energy sector seems to be particularly
appropriate for
the analysis of qualitative change due to the following reasons: The
energy
sector is relevant for the development of the whole economy. When
looking on
the development of primary energy resources it becomes obvious that
different
energy sources are of different importance over time and that new
energy
sources enter the scene from time to time. E.g. the importance of wood
is
decreasing over last 200 years, whereas coal has reached its peak
around the
turn of the last century, natural gas entered the scene not before that
time.
Nuclear energy technologies emerge in the energy supply only after
1960s.
Furthermore, compared to other sectors qualitative change in the energy
sector
proceeds in relative long time periods. Accordingly, different
mechanisms and
effects are comparatively easier to separate as not too many
overlapping
developments are considered to appear simultaneously, which makes the
discrimination of causes and effects more difficult. Related to this,
it is not
invention that plays a particular important role but it is both
innovation as
the first commercial application and diffusion as the spreading out of
the new
technologies. This means that in the analysis strong technological
uncertainty
does play a minor role, most often the relevant technologies do already
exist
as blue-prints and the transformation process basically deals with the
application and improvement of these technologies.
JEL: O11; O12; O3
Paper:
Paper available as pdf-file.
Beitrag Nr. 239, Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsreihe, Institut
für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Augsburg
Contact:
Andreas
Pyka, University of Augsburg, Department of Economics,
Universitätsstr. 16, D-86159 Augsburg, Phone +49-821-598-4179, Fax
+49-821-598-4229
Bernd
Ebersberger, University of Augsburg, Department of Economics,
Universitätsstr. 16, D-86159 Augsburg, Phone +49-821-598-4179, Fax
+49-821-598-4229
Horst
Hanusch, University of Augsburg, Department of Economics,
Universitätsstr. 16, D-86159 Augsburg, Phone +49-821-598-4179, Fax
+49-821-598-4229
E-Mail: horst.hanusch@wiwi.uni-augsburg.de
v.
K., 12.06.2003